Netflix is reporting earnings on Monday October 17th. Stock is up over 7% already, this week alone. Part of this is attributable to rumours on Twitter that Disney wants to make an M&A play for NFLX? Amusing as this may sound…and as much as it nauseates me to even acknowledge Twitter…rumours on both Twitter and StockTwits.com seem to take on a life of their own these days. With “credible news outlets” (eh?) relying on Twitter as “unnamed sources”. Well blow me down… In any event, let’s go to the video tape here and crack this bad boy open:
On Monday of this week, NFLX broke through top heavy resistance established back on September 6 2016
During today’s session NFLX smashed through even heavier resistance established on May 26 2016 in the $103+ area
Today’s high on NFLX has pierced the mid point of the down leg which originated during the week of December 11 2015 near $133.27 and bottomed near $79.95 the week of February 12 2016
Volume over the past 3 sessions has smashed through it’s 50 day average volume. There is something going on here.
Last and certainly not least – Money Flow Index – (Money Flow was the indicator developed by Don Worden back in the 1970’s) which gave birth to Money Stream. That is a topic for another post, lest I digress. But the clue here is Money Flow is CLEARLY rising and has not reached overbought levels yet. We can deduce from this last bullet, that strong hands are coming in – not just retail pikers.
So to wrap this hideous screed here, some final thoughts…I think the whole DIS (Disney) big buy out rumour sounds pretty Mickey Mouse to me, at best. The play here really is – the inflow of money in to the stock ahead of earnings.
And on the subject of earnings, you can expect several things. Count on the fact that NFLX like every other FANG component has guided expectations “under” for analysts. Why would they do that? So they can beat and blow out expectations. They, like all their other peers will use NON GAAP (a/k/a “cooking the books” or “fucking the dog”) accounting methods. Bottom line, earnings surprise – the algo’s that fire off on news headlines will pile on the buy triggers w/o reading the actual earnings statement. MOONSHOT followed by many bag holders a few days hence.
Based on weekly trend diatonics – I see immediate upside to $111.85 followed by $115.64 heading in to earnings 11 days from now. From today’s close near $106.30 – As far as post earnings? That is a lottery ticket…and should be treated as such. At the end of the day…it is bound to be a good flick!
I am KingCAMBO…or used to be anyway..smoke em’ if ya got em, and that’s how I roll…on NFLX
And actually the tale is really a “tell” for me at present. Over the years I have made it an academic exercise to track a list of the momo stocks that daytraders are wont to pile in to, if not leg hump to death. I affectionately refer to this as my “Lemming 13 Index” and the reason I track it, is because I suspect that when things become FUGLY – these will be the plays that get beat up the worst -and- conversely when everyone gets just stupid bull drunk – these are the most likely daily moonshots.
It is hardly an original idea on my part – these are prone to be the same stocks that every yammering media pinhead & self proclaimed market expert is talking about. So with that as the introduction – the current Lemming 13 Index for 2014 as of this post is (in no order of importance): Apple, Twitter, Facebook, First Solar, Priceline, Google, Amazon, Chipolte, Tesla, Linkedin, Wynn Resorts, Biogen & Netflix.
And the point of my hideous screed is going to be what exactly? I will now list them in order of importancein terms of their 2014 intraday highs relative to this Fridays close: TWTR: -36.71% NFLX: -21.61% TSLA: -19.86% LNKD: -18.72% BIIB: -18.05% FB: -17.33% AMZN: -17.10% PCLN: -13.33% WYNN: -12.68% CMG: -8.95% GOOG: -8.85% FSLR: -8.28% AAPL: -2.60%
*Piker’s note:AAPL should really be thrown out of the index. There are not enough leg humping daytraders chasing it anymore; for it to qualify for The Lemmings. I will have to replace it soon, but we can burn this bridge when we get to it.
My vast conclusions are these really… Two of the 13 Lemmings are already in a bear market. Six of the 13 Lemmings are teetering dangerously close to a bear market. That leaves four of the 13 Lemmings clearly in a correction, and of course FAAPL.
There is another way to sum it up. If I took a lazy man’s approach to this; and gave an equal weighting to each of the 13 Lemmings in the index – its 2014 trading high would be 5899.13. It’s March 28th close gives a reading of 5156.59, for a drop during this first quarter of -742.54 points or -12.59%. Again, clearly in a correction.
Are your ready to BTFD so you can be in line to BTFATH again? You’d have to be drunker than Cooter Brown in my opinion, to even try it.
I will submit this is likely not an original observation on my part – but is there something eerily similar about this past weeks Nasdaq behavior; and the beginning of the dot.com blow up from March 2000?
It is like a long strange trip, electric Kool-Aid flashback when today I look at Priceline – which has now dropped -220 points from it’s March 6th high. Google now down -126 points from February 26th. Netflix down -97 points from March 6th as well.
And what about Tesla? They sell less cars in a full calendar year than Ford sells pickups in a single month. TSLA has been bitch-slapped now for -62 points since February 26th. Amazon? down -53 points in just the past two weeks.
And lets not forget the Russell 2000 Index which they have been beating on like a rented mule lately. Down -66 points on it’s own since March the 4th. WHAT GIVES?
I don’t know if history is rhyming here or repeating. Blow me down. Are the lemmings marching predictably to the precipice? An alternating seven year cycle conspiracy sure comes to mind…
Meanwhile Google-A-GoGo has knocked it out of the park again and is taking no prisoners. And what about Netflix? This crappy, half-ass, chump service is now experiencing it’s highest one day rise in history. Plus 43 friggin percent, Holy earnings beat, Batman. Analysts never saw that one coming either.