BLOW ME DOWN!

PLAY OF THE DAY: HD

hd100616

*click on chart to zoom in

How to survive a CAT 4 hurricane and live to talk about it… Step one: move far inland  and do so quickly! Step two: run, drive, or fly as fast as you can, and as far north as you can. Don’t look back and bounce the check to the undertaker.

Once you have secured your new location in a heavily fortified compound – protect thy portfolio. How, you may ask? Why with savvy investment in plywood, hammers and nails of course. Home Depot: HD

Considering the chart above – here are your five reasons why:

  1. Today’s monster “bozu” candle has taken out three levels of resistance – defined by the August 1 2016 high to the September 26 2016 low. These levels all “blown out” in a single trading session.
  2. Uptrend line anchored at the June 27 2016 low and the September 26 2016 low. This suggests there is very strong support now in this stock near the $125.62 area.
  3. A clear and striking break out in volume today – well above it’s 50 SMA.  To wit…about 3 million shares above average volume.
  4. Money Flow – beautiful angle of attack and climbing. No where near overbought territory. Earnings do not release until November 15th – but it looks like due to the storm, heavy hands are moving in early. *(Nov 15 announcement will not reflect any hurricane sales)
  5. Based on the trading range from August through late September $132.25 is a very reasonable upside target – which I expect we can meet or beat on Monday’s open.

And there you have it. To all of my southeastern brothers and sisters, rednecks, goobers, second cousins, ex-wives, former employers, barmaids, beer buddies, miscreants, scoundrels and cretins whom I have known…please be safe. Find yourself some high ground – mix up a pitcher of “Hurricanes” and crank up the Jimmy Buffet music!

And you can bet your ole grandma’s gold fillings that Home Depot will be banging the cash register for you shortly.

Smoke em’ if ya got em’…and that’s how I roll…on HD

BLOW ME DOWN!

Are you in the mood for a GOOD flick?

PLAY OF THE DAY: NFLX

flix

*click on chart to zoom in

Netflix is reporting earnings on Monday October 17th. Stock is up over 7% already, this week alone. Part of this is attributable to rumours on Twitter that Disney wants to make an M&A play for NFLX? Amusing as this may sound…and as much as it nauseates me to even acknowledge Twitter…rumours on both Twitter and StockTwits.com seem to take on a life of their own these days. With “credible news outlets” (eh?) relying on Twitter as “unnamed sources”.  Well blow me down… In any event, let’s go to the video tape here and crack this bad boy open:

  1. On Monday of this week, NFLX broke through top heavy resistance established back on September 6 2016
  2. During today’s session NFLX smashed through even heavier resistance established on May 26 2016 in the $103+ area
  3. Today’s high on NFLX has pierced the mid point of the down leg which originated during the week of December 11 2015 near $133.27 and bottomed near $79.95 the week of February 12 2016
  4. Volume over the past 3 sessions has smashed through it’s 50 day average volume. There is something going on here.
  5. Last and certainly not least – Money Flow Index – (Money Flow was the indicator developed by Don Worden back in the 1970’s) which gave birth to Money Stream. That is a topic for another post, lest I digress. But the clue here is Money Flow is CLEARLY rising and has not reached overbought levels yet. We can deduce from this last bullet, that strong hands are coming in – not just retail pikers.

So to wrap this hideous screed here, some final thoughts…I think the whole DIS (Disney) big buy out rumour sounds pretty Mickey Mouse to me, at best. The play here really is – the inflow of money in to the stock ahead of earnings.

And on the subject of earnings, you can expect several things. Count on the fact that NFLX like every other FANG component has guided expectations “under” for analysts. Why would they do that? So they can beat and blow out expectations. They, like all their other peers will use NON GAAP (a/k/a “cooking the books” or “fucking the dog”) accounting methods.  Bottom line, earnings surprise – the algo’s that fire off on news headlines will pile on the buy triggers w/o reading the actual earnings statement. MOONSHOT followed by many bag holders a few days hence.

Based on weekly trend diatonics – I see immediate upside to $111.85 followed by $115.64 heading in to earnings 11 days from now. From today’s close near $106.30 – As far as post earnings? That is a lottery ticket…and should be treated as such. At the end of the day…it is bound to be a good flick!

I am KingCAMBO…or used to be anyway..smoke em’ if ya got em, and that’s how I roll…on NFLX