BLOW ME DOWN!

PLAY OF THE DAY: HD

hd100616

*click on chart to zoom in

How to survive a CAT 4 hurricane and live to talk about it… Step one: move far inland  and do so quickly! Step two: run, drive, or fly as fast as you can, and as far north as you can. Don’t look back and bounce the check to the undertaker.

Once you have secured your new location in a heavily fortified compound – protect thy portfolio. How, you may ask? Why with savvy investment in plywood, hammers and nails of course. Home Depot: HD

Considering the chart above – here are your five reasons why:

  1. Today’s monster “bozu” candle has taken out three levels of resistance – defined by the August 1 2016 high to the September 26 2016 low. These levels all “blown out” in a single trading session.
  2. Uptrend line anchored at the June 27 2016 low and the September 26 2016 low. This suggests there is very strong support now in this stock near the $125.62 area.
  3. A clear and striking break out in volume today – well above it’s 50 SMA.  To wit…about 3 million shares above average volume.
  4. Money Flow – beautiful angle of attack and climbing. No where near overbought territory. Earnings do not release until November 15th – but it looks like due to the storm, heavy hands are moving in early. *(Nov 15 announcement will not reflect any hurricane sales)
  5. Based on the trading range from August through late September $132.25 is a very reasonable upside target – which I expect we can meet or beat on Monday’s open.

And there you have it. To all of my southeastern brothers and sisters, rednecks, goobers, second cousins, ex-wives, former employers, barmaids, beer buddies, miscreants, scoundrels and cretins whom I have known…please be safe. Find yourself some high ground – mix up a pitcher of “Hurricanes” and crank up the Jimmy Buffet music!

And you can bet your ole grandma’s gold fillings that Home Depot will be banging the cash register for you shortly.

Smoke em’ if ya got em’…and that’s how I roll…on HD

BLOW ME DOWN!

Momo Index Lookin’ Sicker Than Three Dogs

sickdogIt has been exactly 14 years to the day, interestingly enough; when the NASDAQ had an intraday drop of over -658 points in the first 2 hours of trading, only to bounce back and close only slightly lower on the day. I remember it like yesterday, only because it was so macabre watching the then darlings of growth follow each other over the cliff in single file. JDSU, CMGI, CMTN, SDLI…the list was a myriad of dot com lottery tickets. I am getting all misty eyed here as I recall the 1 day short opportunities.

And so here I sit 14 years later (and that is two seven year cycles for those of you good at math) on the same date, seeing another colossal meltdown in the NAZ and  feeling like I have seen this movie before. And I think I remember how it ended… Lets just go to the charts here for April 4th 2014:

  • COMPQX – home of the stuff dreams are made of – has violated the 100 SMA once and for all, on increasing volume, increasing average true range, and an outflow of MoneyStream. I will post a video on this shortly.
  • NASDAQ 100 – Gotta have all of them – DITTO! And again requires some video dialogue.
  • DOW 30 – Most obsolete index in the universe – Outside Reversal Candle on increasing volume -Chart video to be published shortly
  • S&P 500 – Refusing to roll over quietly – DITTO! Another Outside Reversal Candle
  • Russell 2000 – Led on the way up, but on the way down? A close on the lows and right on it’s 100 SMA…and yet another video of mine about to be spawned.

This is your weekend homework, traders. Read em and weep -AND- “smoke em if ya got em…” And wake the fuck up!

The Tale Of The 13 Lemmings

Lemming2And actually the tale is really a “tell” for me at present. Over the years I have made it an academic exercise to track a list of the momo stocks that daytraders are wont to pile in to, if not leg hump to death. I affectionately refer to this as my “Lemming 13 Index” and the reason I track it, is because I suspect that when things become FUGLY – these will be the plays that get beat up the worst -and- conversely when everyone gets just stupid bull drunk – these are the most likely daily moonshots.

It is hardly an original idea on my part – these are prone to be the same stocks that every yammering media pinhead & self proclaimed market expert is talking about. So with that as the introduction – the current Lemming 13 Index for 2014 as of this post is (in no order of importance): Apple, Twitter, Facebook, First Solar, Priceline, Google, Amazon, Chipolte, Tesla, Linkedin, Wynn Resorts, Biogen & Netflix.

And the point of my hideous screed is going to be what exactly? I will now list them in order of importance in terms of their 2014 intraday highs relative to this Fridays close: TWTR: -36.71% NFLX: -21.61% TSLA: -19.86% LNKD: -18.72% BIIB: -18.05%  FB: -17.33% AMZN: -17.10% PCLN: -13.33% WYNN: -12.68% CMG: -8.95%            GOOG: -8.85% FSLR: -8.28% AAPL: -2.60%

*Piker’s note: AAPL should really be thrown out of the index. There are not enough leg humping daytraders chasing it anymore; for it to qualify for The Lemmings. I will have to replace it soon, but we can burn this bridge when we get to it.

My vast conclusions are these really… Two of the 13 Lemmings are already in a bear market. Six of the 13 Lemmings are teetering dangerously close to a bear market. That leaves four of the 13 Lemmings clearly in a correction, and of course FAAPL.

There is another way to sum it up. If I took a lazy man’s approach to this; and gave an equal weighting to each of the 13 Lemmings in the index – its 2014 trading high would be 5899.13. It’s March 28th close gives a reading of 5156.59, for a drop during this first quarter of -742.54 points or -12.59%. Again, clearly in a correction.

Are your ready to BTFD so you can be in line to BTFATH again? You’d have to be drunker than Cooter Brown in my opinion, to even try it.

Dotcom 2000 Redux?

dotcom2I will submit this is likely not an original observation on my part – but is there something eerily similar about this past weeks Nasdaq behavior; and the beginning of the dot.com blow up from March 2000?

It is like a long strange trip, electric Kool-Aid flashback when today I look at Priceline  – which has now dropped -220 points from it’s March 6th high. Google now down -126 points from February 26th. Netflix down -97 points from March 6th as well.

And what about Tesla? They sell less cars in a full calendar year than Ford sells pickups in a single month. TSLA has been bitch-slapped now for  -62 points since February 26th. Amazon? down -53 points in just the past two weeks.

And lets not forget the Russell 2000 Index which they have been beating on like a rented mule lately. Down -66 points on it’s own since March the 4th.  WHAT GIVES?

I don’t know if history is rhyming here or repeating. Blow me down. Are the lemmings marching predictably to the precipice? An alternating seven year cycle conspiracy sure comes to mind…


Those Bastards Killed…

$RUTX, $IWM, $SPLAT

kennyKenny … no, Russell actually…

Russell 2000 starting to look bitter here, and it’s ETF showing increasing volume on selling. Highest volume in three months or more for that matter.

Ponderous chart points in this 3 minute video here.

Smoke em’ if ya got em!



 

Brother Can You Spare A BitCoin…

#BitCoin, $BTCUSD, $BCOIN$Holy Shit!

Moonshot

 

Parabolic MOONSHOT is the understatement of the year on this one…

 

Holy F’n BitCoins batman!

Who knew?  $34.10 to $147.89 in less than a “mooneth”… Any attempt of technical analysis on this current “instrument” would be entirely futile at this stage of the game. That said here is a quick video clip of the current phenomenon.

Mark my words this currency, and for that matter, whatever digital alternative there is to the existing central banks is here to stay. Maybe its BitCoin, maybe it is not. Some platform will survive because the die has been cast.

Some great resources if you feel inclined to get up to speed on this:

Send me some friggin’ BitCoins!