SELL MORTIMER, SELL!
I was amused once again, to be subjected to the shock and dismay of the talking heads over on CNBC tout television; agonising over 9 straight down days on the S&P 500. Something which has not occurred in thirty some odd years. Allegedly.
The culprit? Donald Drumpf of course! He and Russian hackers, the FBI, the right wing coup and tightening polls. Well…blow me down.
At the risk of appearing a bit pedantic – as the chart and bullet points will illustrate below – “smart money” has been leaving the market since the week of September 2nd. And it has nothing to do with the election. That is just the excuse du jour:
1. S&P has clearly violated strong support leading all the way back to late fall 2015
2. First possible Diatonic support (minor level) suggest an initial speed bump this week will be tested near 2065.81
3. Based on the leg established by the January and February double bottom and central bank induced vertical rally – to the week of August 19th all time highs; a 50% retrace suggests that real support comes in near 2002.41. At this level we have an equal amount of winners and losers. This is where the battle will be fought and decided.
4. Volume is increasing but has not yet cracked the 40 week (200 day) moving average. It is going to take much higher volume to put in a “real” bottom.
5. MoneyStream Index indicates that institutional money flow has been leaving the market since the week of September 2nd. Albeit quietly at first, and we did not really see the true effect until this past week. Note the accelerated death spiral and flat line that occurs leading in to November 4th.
We have enjoyed an over 22% faux money, central bank “three card monte” rally over the past 9 months. And now? It is time to bend over and grab your ankles Bullwinkle’s…
I am KingCAMBO, smoke em’ if ya got em’…and that’s how I roll…heading in to election week 2016.
PLAY OF THE DAY: HD
*click on chart to zoom in
How to survive a CAT 4 hurricane and live to talk about it… Step one: move far inland and do so quickly! Step two: run, drive, or fly as fast as you can, and as far north as you can. Don’t look back and bounce the check to the undertaker.
Once you have secured your new location in a heavily fortified compound – protect thy portfolio. How, you may ask? Why with savvy investment in plywood, hammers and nails of course. Home Depot: HD
Considering the chart above – here are your five reasons why:
- Today’s monster “bozu” candle has taken out three levels of resistance – defined by the August 1 2016 high to the September 26 2016 low. These levels all “blown out” in a single trading session.
- Uptrend line anchored at the June 27 2016 low and the September 26 2016 low. This suggests there is very strong support now in this stock near the $125.62 area.
- A clear and striking break out in volume today – well above it’s 50 SMA. To wit…about 3 million shares above average volume.
- Money Flow – beautiful angle of attack and climbing. No where near overbought territory. Earnings do not release until November 15th – but it looks like due to the storm, heavy hands are moving in early. *(Nov 15 announcement will not reflect any hurricane sales)
- Based on the trading range from August through late September $132.25 is a very reasonable upside target – which I expect we can meet or beat on Monday’s open.
And there you have it. To all of my southeastern brothers and sisters, rednecks, goobers, second cousins, ex-wives, former employers, barmaids, beer buddies, miscreants, scoundrels and cretins whom I have known…please be safe. Find yourself some high ground – mix up a pitcher of “Hurricanes” and crank up the Jimmy Buffet music!
And you can bet your ole grandma’s gold fillings that Home Depot will be banging the cash register for you shortly.
Smoke em’ if ya got em’…and that’s how I roll…on HD
BLOW ME DOWN!
PLAY OF THE DAY: NFLX
*click on chart to zoom in
Netflix is reporting earnings on Monday October 17th. Stock is up over 7% already, this week alone. Part of this is attributable to rumours on Twitter that Disney wants to make an M&A play for NFLX? Amusing as this may sound…and as much as it nauseates me to even acknowledge Twitter…rumours on both Twitter and StockTwits.com seem to take on a life of their own these days. With “credible news outlets” (eh?) relying on Twitter as “unnamed sources”. Well blow me down… In any event, let’s go to the video tape here and crack this bad boy open:
- On Monday of this week, NFLX broke through top heavy resistance established back on September 6 2016
- During today’s session NFLX smashed through even heavier resistance established on May 26 2016 in the $103+ area
- Today’s high on NFLX has pierced the mid point of the down leg which originated during the week of December 11 2015 near $133.27 and bottomed near $79.95 the week of February 12 2016
- Volume over the past 3 sessions has smashed through it’s 50 day average volume. There is something going on here.
- Last and certainly not least – Money Flow Index – (Money Flow was the indicator developed by Don Worden back in the 1970’s) which gave birth to Money Stream. That is a topic for another post, lest I digress. But the clue here is Money Flow is CLEARLY rising and has not reached overbought levels yet. We can deduce from this last bullet, that strong hands are coming in – not just retail pikers.
So to wrap this hideous screed here, some final thoughts…I think the whole DIS (Disney) big buy out rumour sounds pretty Mickey Mouse to me, at best. The play here really is – the inflow of money in to the stock ahead of earnings.
And on the subject of earnings, you can expect several things. Count on the fact that NFLX like every other FANG component has guided expectations “under” for analysts. Why would they do that? So they can beat and blow out expectations. They, like all their other peers will use NON GAAP (a/k/a “cooking the books” or “fucking the dog”) accounting methods. Bottom line, earnings surprise – the algo’s that fire off on news headlines will pile on the buy triggers w/o reading the actual earnings statement. MOONSHOT followed by many bag holders a few days hence.
Based on weekly trend diatonics – I see immediate upside to $111.85 followed by $115.64 heading in to earnings 11 days from now. From today’s close near $106.30 – As far as post earnings? That is a lottery ticket…and should be treated as such. At the end of the day…it is bound to be a good flick!
I am KingCAMBO…or used to be anyway..smoke em’ if ya got em, and that’s how I roll…on NFLX
This is my first post in many a blue moon…so forgive me while I shake the cobwebs out from between my ears. A good friend down in Marco was asking for my thoughts on Newmont Mining as a play. Instead of bloviating on it – I will just share my reply here:
Okay… the daily chart has been eviscerated, so we need to zoom out to a weekly chart to see the bigger picture. Take a look at my footnotes below the chart:
1. Is the low price from the week of August 28th 2015. The last major bottom.
2. Is the most recent significant low from the week of May 27th 2016
3. This weeks action has blown up a very heavy support diatonic near $36
4. Curiously enough the $30.84 area (call it $31) is the midpoint of the 2015 bottom to the week of August 12th 2016 top. And this is the most important. At the midpoint of a major leg – there are 50% winners and 50% losers. This where the majority of the stop loss orders will be placed. Either the Bulls or the Bears will capitulate here on margin calls. “loot a burning house” theory…
5. Consider this too – look how extremely low the volume has been on this meltdown… that should tell you two things – a.) Institutions, and hedge funds, banks and strong hands are not the ones dumping. -and- b.) this is RETAIL selling or what I affectionately would refer to as a “Piker’s Panic”. I can’t see any reason to try to front run a long trade until it tests and holds the $31 +/- area
I came up here to be an expatriate from Obama’s new world order – of jobs for Wal-Mart greeters and Kroger bag boys at minimum wage, for EVERYONE 55 and older. That is how he saved the economy. While playing golf…
And I had sentimental reasons as well. My mother was born here and she never changed her citizenship. Even though she spent her entire life paying US taxes in to Social Security.
Which begs a very funny question – why are we all paying in to Social Security which is going bankrupt, when WELFARE will NEVER go bankrupt?
It would of been a much better investment decision when one thinks about it, to never of had a job. And then get a free Obamma phone and “dith-abilty” as our entitlements. Why, did I never think of that option?
How does socialism work up north? Funny you asked. This is how it works – Yesterday was my first trip to a Canadian gas station. The sign on the post says regular $1.17, I say to myself “far fucking out”, this is an oil rich country isn’t it?
Then I find out that socialists sell gas by the litre, not by the gallon. In other words it is actually 1.17 x 3.78 = or $4.42 a gallon. When I left Tennessee we were paying I think, $2.39 per gallon.
It cost me $30 to get half a tank of gas. Here is the breakdown in basic socialist mathematics :
1. 13% HST tax per litre
2. 10 cents Federal Tax per litre
3. 14.7 cents Provincial Tax per litre
WTF is a “Provincial Tax” if the government already got it twice above?
Lets do some other basic mathematics here – there are 3.78 per litres to a gallon. The cheapest socialist gas available is $1.18 per litre so therefore $4.46 per gallon. Now then, per socialism:
1. HST = 58 cents per gallon
2. Federal = 38 cents per gallon
3. Province = 56 cents per gallon
In other words, in an oil rich country – VERY oil rich – where the native currency is being destroyed by FALLING oil prices – there are $1.52 in taxes imposed on every gallon of gas…
And NOW they are going to spend all that money to bring in 25,000 hard on their luck Syrian terrorists?
Hi! Welcome to Canada! Here is your free EBT card! Please do not suicide bomb us! Until you get settled that is…
Mother of god just make this stop…